One of the defining features of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has been the inability of the much larger and more advanced Russian Aerospace Forces to establish air superiority in the conflict. This surprised analysts and prompted a widespread reconsideration of the services’ capabilities as well as the potential threat it poses to NATO countries.
In this episode CNA’s Julian Waller and RUSI’s Justin Bronk join John Stimpson, to examine Russian air operations during the Ukraine War and ask what lessons policy makers can learn from them.
Guest Biographies
Justin Bronk is the Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology in the Military Sciences team at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), and the Editor of the RUSI Defence Systems online journal. His areas of expertise include the modern combat air environment, Russian and Chinese ground-based air defences and fast jet capabilities, the air war during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, unmanned combat aerial vehicles and novel weapons technology.
Twitter: @Justin_Br0nk
Julian G. Waller is an associate Research analyst in CNA’s Russia Studies program. He is expert in the politics of authoritarian regimes in post-Soviet Eurasia and Europe, with a focus on Russian and Ukrainian domestic political institutions and their relation to political-military issues. At CNA, he has developed reports on Russian military strategy, political media analysis and domestic artificial intelligence developments.
Twitter: @JulianWaller
Further Reading
CNA Report - Russian Combat Air Strengths and Limitations: Lessons from Ukraine
Free and fair elections are an essential of the democratic process, but in recent years foreign inference and disinformation have shaken voters trust in the electoral system.
In this episode, guest host Sabrina Verleysen, sits down with CNA’s Dawn Thomas and former Elections Assistance Commissioner Matt Masterson. They discuss how jurisdictions can secure their elections, what resources are available to them and how to ensure their voters are confident in the results.
Guests
Matt Masterson served as Senior Cybersecurity Advisor at the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (known as CISA), where he focused on election security issues. He previously served as a Commissioner at the Election Assistance Commission from December 2014 until March 2018, including serving as the Commission’s Chairman in 2017-2018.
Dawn Thomas is a co-director of the Center for Emergency Management and Operations and director of the Center for Critical Incident Analysis. She is an expert in large-scale incident planning and response. She has worked on a large array of emergency preparedness issues including: biological attacks, active shooters, large-scale evacuations, medical evacuations, earthquakes and tsunamis, mass casualty chemical incidents, public health outbreaks and cyberattacks.
Sabrina Verleysen is an expert in government relations and Indonesian civilian-military relations. She collaborates regularly on business development lifecycle activities and executes strategic initiatives, events, and engagements. In addition, she supports projects funded by the Department of State that focus on civilian harm mitigation.
Further Reading
Learn more about election security preparations using workshops, drills, and tabletop exercises on CNA.org.
If you’d like to receive updates about upcoming election security seminars please email electionsecurity@cna.org.
Drones have become a ubiquitous part of our society, used by everyday people for fun or as part of their business. The potential of these tools seems limitless but one area that is less discussed is how they can be used by first responders and emergency managers to help keep the public safe.
In this episode Addam Jordan and Marina Rozenblat join John Stimpson. To discuss how jurisdiction can successfully implement drones into their public safety and emergency response plans.
Guest Biographies
Marina Chumakov Rozenblat is the Chief Scientist for CNA’s Center for Data Management and Analytics. She is an expert in data management, cybersecurity, uncrewed aircraft systems, and aviation applications of AI and machine learning.
Addam Jordan is the Chief Scientist for CNA’s Center for Enterprise Systems Modernization. He specializes in new entrants, uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS), artificial intelligence (AI) and cybersecurity.
Further Reading
Sign up for Marina’s workshop here.
CNA Spotlight: The Glorious Future of Unmanned Aircraft Systems
For the past 3 months Israel has experienced the largest mass protest movement in its history. The demonstrators oppose judicial reforms which, if enacted, would give the government greater control over appointing Supreme Court judges and allow its parliament to overrule supreme court decisions.
In this episode, Samuel Plapinger returns to the podcast to discuss the protests, why they have been so effective and what this portends for Prime Minster Netanyahu’s administration.
Samuel Plapinger is a Research Scientist with CNA’s Special Activities and Intelligence program. He is an expert on strategic competition, irregular warfare, combat effectiveness, insurgency, terrorism, and Middle East security.
Episode Links
CNA InDepth: Israel’s New Government Is the Most Far-right in Its History
National Security Seminar: Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Operations
In this episode, Dmirtry Gorenburg and Steve Wills join John Stimpson. They discuss Finland and Sweden’s NATO accession and what it means for the alliance and for Russia.
Dmitry Gorenburg is a Senior Research Scientist with CNA’s Russia Studies program. He is an expert on security issues in the former Soviet Union, the Russian military, Russian foreign policy, and ethnic politics and identity. He is also an associate at the Davis center for Russian and Eurasian studies at Harvard university.
Twitter: @russmil
Steve Wills is a Research Scientist with CNA’s Strategy and Policy Analysis Program. As a Navy historian, his research interests include the history of U.S. Navy strategy development over the Cold War and immediate post-Cold War eras, and the post-World War II Navy surface fleet. He is an also the Navalist at the Center for maritime strategy at Navy league US.
Twitter: @Lazarus_Navy
In this bonus episode of CNA Talks, we are bringing you the recording of CNA’s recent National Security Seminar, “Nuclear cooperation with strategic competitors,” which has held on March 21, 2023. The event featured panelists Timothy McDonnell and Rose Gottemoeller. McDonnell is the author of a recent CNA publication entitled, “Working with the Adversary: Great Power Cooperation and Nuclear Risk Management.” This report uses archival sources to examine three historical cases of great power nuclear cooperation, distilling lessons and insights for practitioners. During the event Dr. McDonnell shared his findings and then discussed them with Gottemoeller, a seasoned arms control practitioner, about its findings and implications. The event was moderated by CNA’s Mary Chesnut.
Rose Gottemoeller, Steven C. Házy Lecturer, Center for International Security and Cooperation, and Research Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University; former Deputy Secretary General, NATO; former Under Secretary for Arms Control & International Security and chief US negotiator for the New START Treaty, US State Department
Timothy P. McDonnell, Research Analyst and nuclear weapons policy expert, Strategy and Policy Analysis Program, CNA. He is the author of the report, “Working with the Adversary: Great Power Cooperation and Nuclear Risk Management.”
Mary Chesnut, Research Analyst and nuclear weapons policy expert, Russia Studies Program, CNA
Further Reading
CNA- Working with the Adversary: Great Power Competetion and Nuclear Risk Management
The Naval Diving and Salvage Training Center, in Panama City Florida, trains more than 1,200 military divers from across the services. These students are persuing certificates in everything from underwater construction to explosive ordnance disposal.
In this episode, Neil Carey joins John Stimpson to discuss his research on the potential of extended reality technology (which includes virtual reality, augmented reality and mix/merged reality) as a tool for the training and assessment of these divers.
Resources
Dr. Neil Carey is a Senior Research Scientist with CNA’s Navy Human Resources Program. He is an expert in psychological measurement, cognitive psychology, and their applications to learning.
CNA: The Promise and Pitfalls Of Extended Reality In Naval Training
In this episode, we examine a new regulation from the Department of Commerce aimed at limiting China’s access to semiconductors and microchips, the impact it is having on China and how U.S. partner nations are responding.
Guests
April Herlevi is a Senior Research Scientist with CNA's Indo-Pacific Security Affairs program. She is an expert in China's foreign economic policy, special economic zones, and economic statecraft.
Christopher Cairns is a Research Scientist with CNA's Indo-Pacific Security Affairs program. He is an expert in China's economic statecraft and technology acquisition efforts and U.S. ally and partner issues in the Indo-Pacific.
Links
To subscribe to the Intersections newsletter, please email intersections@cna.org
Intersections Issue 1: https://www.cna.org/our-media/newsletters/intersections/issue-1
Intersections Issue 2: https://www.cna.org/our-media/newsletters/intersections/issue-2
Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has been the predominant foreign power in the Middle East, influencing the economic, political and security affairs of the region. But in recent years other great powers have begun to chip away at this power, carving out their own spheres of influence in the region.
In this episode, we explore the strategic objectives of China and Russia in the Middle East, the tools they are using to achieve them, and what this means for U.S. policymakers.
Guests
Michael Connell is an expert in Persian Gulf security-related issues, the armed forces of Iran, U.S.-GCC security cooperation, and adversary cyber policy and strategy.
Samuel Plapinger is an expert on strategic competition, irregular warfare, combat effectiveness, insurgency, terrorism, and Middle East security.
Links
Report: China’s Presence in the Middle East and Western Indian Ocean
Podcast: Putin, Raisi and Their Common Enemy
This episode originally aired on CIMSEC's Sea Control Podcast. Special thanks to their team for allowing up to rebroadcast this episode.
Dr. Joshua Tallis joins the program to discuss the evolution of NATO's maritime command and control and the future for the Standing Naval Force. Dr. Tallis is a naval analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses, where he is a senior research scientist in the Operations Evaluation Group. He has embedded as an analyst with Carrier Strike Group Eight and most recently with U.S. Sixth Fleet. This episode was edited and produced by Nathan Miller.
Links
1. "NATO’s Maritime Vigilance: Optimizing the Standing Naval Force for the Future," by Dr. Joshua Tallis, War on the Rocks, December 15, 2022.
What do search engine optimization, airline schedules and standardized testing have in common? They are all vulnerable to Goodhart’s law, the idea that when a metric becomes a target it ceases to be a good metric.
In this episode Michael Stumborg and Timothy Blasius join John to discuss their report, “Goodhart’s Law: Recognizing and Mitigating the Manipulation of Measures in Analysis.”
Michael Stumborg is a Principal Research Scientist with CNA’s Strike and Air Warfare Program.
Timothy Blasius is a Senior Research Scientist with CNA’s Strike and Air Warfare Program.
CNA: Goodhart’s Law: Recognizing and Mitigating the Manipulation of Measures in Analysis
Army War College: Lying to Ourselves: Dishonesty in the Army Profession
For the past 80 years, the Center for Naval Analyses has been the Navy’s partner and an essential resource for agencies across the federal government.
In this episode, Executive Vice President of the Center for Naval Analyses, Andrew Mara sits down to discuss the Center’s accomplishments over the past fiscal year and where the organization is headed in the coming one.
On November 28, thousands of people across China took to the streets to protest the country’s ‘zero-COVID policies and censorship and to call for democracy. These demonstrations were an unprecedented show of dissent against the government in the era of Xi Jinping. How has the government responded to these uprisings, and how will they affect Beijing’s COVID strategy going forward?
To answer these questions Heidi Holz and Josiah Case, analysts from CNA’s China Studies Program, join the podcast.
Heidi Holz is a Research Scientist in the CNA China Studies Program. Her research interests include China's media environment, Chinese military doctrine and operations, as well as U.S.-China military-to-military relations.
Josiah Case is a Research Analyst in CNA's China Studies Program. His research at CNA has focused on PRC media and Beijing's global activities during the COVID-19 pandemic.
CNA InDepth: Bejing's Zero-COVID Dilemma
CNA Report: Telling China's COVID-19 Story Well
Propaganda, Disinformation, & Other Influence Efforts
Video Link to this Podcast: https://youtu.be/Aly90z-1-eI
THE 20TH NATIONAL CONGRESS OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY: FOREIGN POLICY, TECHNOLOGY AND MILITARY DIMENSIONS A SITUATION SPOTLIGHT Part of CNA’s National Security Seminars series November 17, 2022 10:30 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. EST
Featuring: Dr. David Finkelstein, Vice President, CNA and Director, China and Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Division, CNA (https://www.cna.org/about-us/leadership/center-for-naval-analyses/david-finkelstein.xml) Dr. Elizabeth Wishnick (https://www.cna.org/experts/Wishnick_E.xml), Senior Research Scientist, China Studies Program (https://www.cna.org/centers-and-divisions/cna/cip/china-studies), CNA, and Senior Research Scholar, Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University Dr. April Herlevi (https://www.cna.org/experts/Herlevi_A.xml) Senior Research Scientist, Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Program (https://www.cna.org/centers-and-divisions/cna/cip/indo-pacific-security-affairs), CNA For a recent analysis of the CCP Congress report see our InDepth blog posts by David Finkelstein and Brian Waidelich.
Analysis of the impact of the women-led protests since the death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of the morality police. Is this a new Iranian Revolution led by women?
Featuring: Dr. Michael Connell, Principal Research Scientist, Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs Division, CNA Nazee Moinian, Non-Resident Scholar, Iran Program, Middle East Institute
Moderated by: Nilanthi Samaranayake, Director, Strategy and Policy Analysis Program, CNA
With Introductions by: Halleh Seyson, Vice President/Director, Institute for Public Research, CNA A Virtual Seminar by CNA’s Inclusive National Security & National Security Seminar Series October 25, 2022.
Full Event: The Crackdown in Iran: A Women, Peace, and Security Situation Spotlight
The Pacific Islands region is a massive and diverse region, and one with strategic value to both the United States and China. What challenges do the people of the Pacific Island Countries face and how can they navigate strategic competition between the great powers.
April Herlevi and Chris Cairns from CNA’s Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Program, sit down to discuss the latest from the Pacific Islands, and how China and the United States are engaged in the region.
Further Reading
Army War College: Enabling a More Externally Focused and Operational PLA
CNA: Mapping the Information Environment in the Pacific Island Countries
CNA: PRC Vessels Detained for Illegal Fishing in Vanuatu EEZ
CNA InDepth: China and the Solomon Islands: Drivers of Security Cooperation"
CNA InDepth: Pacific Connectivity and Tonga's Volcanic Eruption
CNA InDepth: Tonga Aid
Brazil is currently amid a contentious presidential election between incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. President Bolsonaro has consistently claimed that Brazil's election system is vulnerable to fraud, sparking fears that the peaceful transition of power could be threatened.
Ralph Espach, from CNA’s Strategy and Policy Analyses Program, joins the show to discuss the Brazilian election, the threat to democracy in the country and what this could mean for U.S. interests in South America.
For the past 80 years, the Center for Naval Analyses has been the Navy’s partner and an essential resource for agencies across the federal government.
In this episode, Executive Vice President of the Center for Naval Analyses, Andrew Mara sits down to discuss the Center’s accomplishments over the past fiscal year and where the organization is headed in the coming one.
It’s been just over a year since the Taliban seized control of Kabul and established themselves as the government of Afghanistan. What has changed in Afghanistan in that time and what is the status of the major factions in the country?
CNA’s Jonathan Schroden is joined by three experts on militant groups in Afghanistan, they discuss the status of the Taliban, Al Qaeda and ISIS-K in Afghanistan and the relationships between these groups.
Jonathan Schroden is the director of CNA’s Counter Threats and Challenges Program.
Twitter: @JJSchroden
Amira Jadoon is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at Clemson University. Previously she worked at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point.
Twitter: @amirajadoon
Asfandyar Mir is a senior expert in the Asia Center at USIP. His research interests include the international relations of South Asia, U.S. counterterrorism policy and political violence — with a regional focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Twitter: @asfandyarmir
Andrew Watkins is a senior expert on Afghanistan for the U.S. Institute of Peace. He joined after serving as the senior analyst on Afghanistan for the International Crisis Group, where he published in-depth reports and analytical commentary on the country’s conflict and efforts to initiate a peaceful settlement.
Twitter: @and_huh_what
In July, the eyes of the world were fixed on Sri Lanka, when protesters stormed the Presidential Palace, demanding the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. But while the headlines have since faded, the story is far from over.
In this episode of CNA Talks, Nilanthi Samaranayake stops by to fill us in on what has happened in Sri Lanka since the protests and how the new President can address the crisis.
Nilanthi Samaranayake (@nilanthis) directs CNA's Strategy and Policy Analysis Program, her recent analysis of Sri Lanka has been published in Newsweek and Lawfare.
Further Reading
Newsweek: China's Not to Blame for All of Sri Lanka's Woes
Lawfare: How Has Sri Lanka’s Crisis Impacted Indian Ocean Security?
This content was originally published on BMNT's YouTube Channel. You can find the original video here.
In this follow-up conversation to BMNT’s June panel "The Race for Autonomy: Navigating a New Battlefield," A'ndre Gonawela talks to Dr. David Broyles, Research Program Director at the Center for Naval Analysis and co-host of "AI with AI", on the challenges facing the Department of Defense when it comes to developing and leveraging autonomous systems and capabilities. Dr. Broyles digs into why he (like our prior panelists) believes the state of autonomy today is ‘brittle’, and why the end goal for many is ‘general AI’ – the ability for artificial intelligence to behave and adapt like human intelligence can. We discuss Dr. Broyles’ belief that an ‘AI Winter’ may be approaching, where momentum in the development of systems is slowed or even halted. We then dig into where the Department of Defense is on the racetrack, dissecting the lingering confusion that underlies the differences between unmanned systems and autonomous systems, and how we can better equip DoD leaders in understanding how autonomous systems can operate. Dr. Broyles highlights opportunities to build trust in autonomous systems with the warfighter, in addition to addressing the edge cases and ‘fat tails’ that can impede the success of autonomous vehicles.
You can read about our first panel here: https://www.bmnt.com/post/the-race-for-autonomy-is-here
Notes from Episode
Hi Listeners,
Due to technical difficulties, CNA Talks will be released tomorrow, August 18. Thank you all for your patience.
As the Navy transitions to the new Detailing Marketplace Assignment Policy increased demand will be placed on its detailers. In today’s episode, we discuss a new tool from CNA which could help expedite the assignment process and help detailers execute their mission.
Biographies
Warren Sutton is a Senior Research Scientist in CNA’s Navy Human Resources Program.
Further Reading
Navy Enlisted Detailing Marketplace Assignment Algorithm
Every branch of the military is struggling to meet its fiscal year 2022 recruiting goals. Marine General David Ottignon recently told Congress that 2022 is “arguably the most challenging recruiting year since the inception of the all-volunteer force.”
In this episode, we explore what is driving these challenges and how the military can adapt its recruiting strategizes to the modern media environment.
Guests
Elizabeth Clelan is a Principal Research Scientist in CNA’s Marine Corps and Defense Workforce Program.
Heather Wolters is a Senior Research Scientist in CNA’s Marine Corps and Defense Workforce Program.
Jared Huff is a Principal Research Scientist in CNA’s Navy Human Resources Program.
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This week we are bringing you a rebroadcast of Episode 108, to coincide with CNA's recent case study on the same topic.
As climate change increases the frequency and impact of natural disasters, the consequences of these events are not felt evenly. While disasters are devastating for everyone, they are exponentially worse for already vulnerable populations.
In this episode of CNA Talks, CNA’s Angie De Groot sits down with Jason Biermann and Jody Ferguson, emergency management professionals from the Pudget Sound region, in Washington. They discuss an innovative approach that priorities getting aid to their most vulnerable citizens, with the help of their private sector partners.
A Case Study in Supply Chain Resilience Private-public Collaboration To Facilitate Flows: The Experience of Puget Sound Early in the Pandemic