One of the defining features of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has been the inability of the much larger and more advanced Russian Aerospace Forces to establish air superiority in the conflict. This surprised analysts and prompted a widespread reconsideration of the services’ capabilities as well as the potential threat it poses to NATO countries.

In this episode CNA’s Julian Waller and RUSI’s Justin Bronk join John Stimpson, to examine Russian air operations during the Ukraine War and ask what lessons policy makers can learn from them.

Guest Biographies

Justin Bronk is the Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology in the Military Sciences team at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), and the Editor of the RUSI Defence Systems online journal. His areas of expertise include the modern combat air environment, Russian and Chinese ground-based air defences and fast jet capabilities, the air war during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, unmanned combat aerial vehicles and novel weapons technology.

 Twitter: @Justin_Br0nk

Julian G. Waller is an associate Research analyst in CNA’s Russia Studies program. He is expert in the politics of authoritarian regimes in post-Soviet Eurasia and Europe, with a focus on Russian and Ukrainian domestic political institutions and their relation to political-military issues. At CNA, he has developed reports on Russian military strategy, political media analysis and domestic artificial intelligence developments.

Twitter: @JulianWaller

Further Reading

CNA Report - Russian Combat Air Strengths and Limitations: Lessons from Ukraine

Free and fair elections are an essential of the democratic process, but in recent years foreign inference and disinformation have shaken voters trust in the electoral system.

In this episode, guest host Sabrina Verleysen, sits down with CNA’s Dawn Thomas and former Elections Assistance Commissioner Matt Masterson. They discuss how jurisdictions can secure their elections, what resources are available to them and how to ensure their voters are confident in the results.

Guests

Matt Masterson served as Senior Cybersecurity Advisor at the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (known as CISA), where he focused on election security issues. He previously served as a Commissioner at the Election Assistance Commission from December 2014 until March 2018, including serving as the Commission’s Chairman in 2017-2018.

Dawn Thomas is a co-director of the Center for Emergency Management and Operations and director of the Center for Critical Incident Analysis. She is an expert in large-scale incident planning and response. She has worked on a large array of emergency preparedness issues including: biological attacks, active shooters, large-scale evacuations, medical evacuations, earthquakes and tsunamis, mass casualty chemical incidents, public health outbreaks and cyberattacks.

Sabrina Verleysen is an expert in government relations and Indonesian civilian-military relations. She collaborates regularly on business development lifecycle activities and executes strategic initiatives, events, and engagements. In addition, she supports projects funded by the Department of State that focus on civilian harm mitigation.

Further Reading

Learn more about election security preparations using workshops, drills, and tabletop exercises on CNA.org.

If you’d like to receive updates about upcoming election security seminars please email electionsecurity@cna.org.

Drones have become a ubiquitous part of our society, used by everyday people for fun or as part of their business. The potential of these tools seems limitless but one area that is less discussed is how they can be used by first responders and emergency managers to help keep the public safe.

In this episode Addam Jordan and Marina Rozenblat join John Stimpson. To discuss how jurisdiction can successfully implement drones into their public safety and emergency response plans.

Guest Biographies

Marina Chumakov Rozenblat is the Chief Scientist for CNA’s Center for Data Management and Analytics. She is an expert in data management, cybersecurity, uncrewed aircraft systems, and aviation applications of AI and machine learning.

Addam Jordan is the Chief Scientist for CNA’s Center for Enterprise Systems Modernization. He specializes in new entrants, uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS), artificial intelligence (AI) and cybersecurity.

Further Reading

Sign up for Marina’s workshop here.

CNA Spotlight: The Glorious Future of Unmanned Aircraft Systems

For the past 3 months Israel has experienced the largest mass protest movement in its history. The demonstrators oppose judicial reforms which, if enacted, would give the government greater control over appointing Supreme Court judges and allow its parliament to overrule supreme court decisions.

In this episode, Samuel Plapinger returns to the podcast to discuss the protests, why they have been so effective and what this portends for Prime Minster Netanyahu’s administration.

Samuel Plapinger is a Research Scientist with CNA’s Special Activities and Intelligence program. He is an expert on strategic competition, irregular warfare, combat effectiveness, insurgency, terrorism, and Middle East security.

Episode Links

CNA InDepth: Israel’s New Government Is the Most Far-right in Its History

National Security Seminar: Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Operations  

In this episode, Dmirtry Gorenburg and Steve Wills join John Stimpson. They discuss Finland and Sweden’s NATO accession and what it means for the alliance and for Russia.

Dmitry Gorenburg is a Senior Research Scientist with CNA’s Russia Studies program. He is an expert on security issues in the former Soviet Union, the Russian military, Russian foreign policy, and ethnic politics and identity. He is also an associate at the Davis center for Russian and Eurasian studies at Harvard university.

Twitter: @russmil

Steve Wills is a Research Scientist with CNA’s Strategy and Policy Analysis Program. As a Navy historian, his research interests include the history of U.S. Navy strategy development over the Cold War and immediate post-Cold War eras, and the post-World War II Navy surface fleet. He is an also the Navalist at the Center for maritime strategy at Navy league US.

Twitter: @Lazarus_Navy

In this bonus episode of CNA Talks, we are bringing you the recording of CNA’s recent National Security Seminar, “Nuclear cooperation with strategic competitors,” which has held on March 21, 2023. The event featured panelists Timothy McDonnell and Rose Gottemoeller. McDonnell is the author of a recent CNA publication entitled, “Working with the Adversary: Great Power Cooperation and Nuclear Risk Management.” This report uses archival sources to examine three historical cases of great power nuclear cooperation, distilling lessons and insights for practitioners. During the event Dr. McDonnell shared his findings and then discussed them with Gottemoeller, a seasoned arms control practitioner, about its findings and implications. The event was moderated by CNA’s Mary Chesnut.

Rose Gottemoeller, Steven C. Házy Lecturer, Center for International Security and Cooperation, and Research Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University; former Deputy Secretary General, NATO; former Under Secretary for Arms Control & International Security and chief US negotiator for the New START Treaty, US State Department

Timothy P. McDonnell, Research Analyst and nuclear weapons policy expert, Strategy and Policy Analysis Program, CNA. He is the author of the report, “Working with the Adversary: Great Power Cooperation and Nuclear Risk Management.”

Mary Chesnut, Research Analyst and nuclear weapons policy expert, Russia Studies Program, CNA

Further Reading

CNA- Working with the Adversary: Great Power Competetion and Nuclear Risk Management

The Naval Diving and Salvage Training Center, in Panama City Florida, trains more than 1,200 military divers from across the services. These students are persuing certificates in everything from underwater construction to explosive ordnance disposal.  

In this episode, Neil Carey joins John Stimpson to discuss his research on the potential of extended reality technology (which includes virtual reality, augmented reality and mix/merged reality) as a tool for the training and assessment of these divers.

Resources

Dr. Neil Carey is a Senior Research Scientist with CNA’s Navy Human Resources Program. He is an expert in psychological measurement, cognitive psychology, and their applications to learning. 

CNA: The Promise and Pitfalls Of Extended Reality In Naval Training

In this episode, we examine a new regulation from the Department of Commerce aimed at limiting China’s access to semiconductors and microchips, the impact it is having on China and how U.S. partner nations are responding.

Guests 

April Herlevi is a Senior Research Scientist with CNA's Indo-Pacific Security Affairs program. She is an expert in China's foreign economic policy, special economic zones, and economic statecraft. 

Christopher Cairns is a Research Scientist with CNA's Indo-Pacific Security Affairs program. He is an expert in China's economic statecraft and technology acquisition efforts and U.S. ally and partner issues in the Indo-Pacific. 

Links

To subscribe to the Intersections newsletter, please email intersections@cna.org

Intersections Issue 1: https://www.cna.org/our-media/newsletters/intersections/issue-1

Intersections Issue 2: https://www.cna.org/our-media/newsletters/intersections/issue-2

Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has been the predominant foreign power in the Middle East, influencing the economic, political and security affairs of the region. But in recent years other great powers have begun to chip away at this power, carving out their own spheres of influence in the region.

In this episode, we explore the strategic objectives of China and Russia in the Middle East, the tools they are using to achieve them, and what this means for U.S. policymakers.

Guests

Michael Connell is an expert in Persian Gulf security-related issues, the armed forces of Iran, U.S.-GCC security cooperation, and adversary cyber policy and strategy.

Samuel Plapinger is an expert on strategic competition, irregular warfare, combat effectiveness, insurgency, terrorism, and Middle East security.

Links

Report: China’s Presence in the Middle East and Western Indian Ocean

Podcast: Putin, Raisi and Their Common Enemy

What do search engine optimization, airline schedules and standardized testing have in common? They are all vulnerable to Goodhart’s law, the idea that when a metric becomes a target it ceases to be a good metric.  

In this episode Michael Stumborg and Timothy Blasius join John to discuss their report, “Goodhart’s Law: Recognizing and Mitigating the Manipulation of Measures in Analysis.”

Michael Stumborg is a Principal Research Scientist with CNA’s ​Strike and Air Warfare Program.

Timothy Blasius is a Senior Research Scientist with CNA’s Strike and Air Warfare Program.

CNA: Goodhart’s Law: Recognizing and Mitigating the Manipulation of Measures in Analysis

Army War College: Lying to Ourselves: Dishonesty in the Army Profession

For the past 80 years, the Center for Naval Analyses has been the Navy’s partner and an essential resource for agencies across the federal government.

In this episode, Executive Vice President of the Center for Naval Analyses, Andrew Mara sits down to discuss the Center’s accomplishments over the past fiscal year and where the organization is headed in the coming one.

On November 28, thousands of people across China took to the streets to protest the country’s ‘zero-COVID policies and censorship and to call for democracy. These demonstrations were an unprecedented show of dissent against the government in the era of Xi Jinping. How has the government responded to these uprisings, and how will they affect Beijing’s COVID strategy going forward?

To answer these questions Heidi Holz and Josiah Case, analysts from CNA’s China Studies Program, join the podcast.  

Heidi Holz is a Research Scientist in the CNA China Studies Program. Her research interests include China's media environment, Chinese military doctrine and operations, as well as U.S.-China military-to-military relations.

Josiah Case is a Research Analyst in CNA's China Studies Program. His research at CNA has focused on PRC media and Beijing's global activities during the COVID-19 pandemic.

CNA InDepth: Bejing's Zero-COVID Dilemma 

CNA Report: Telling China's COVID-19 Story Well

Propaganda, Disinformation, & Other Influence Efforts

Video Link to this Podcast: https://youtu.be/Aly90z-1-eI

https://www.cna.org

THE 20TH NATIONAL CONGRESS OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY: FOREIGN POLICY, TECHNOLOGY AND MILITARY DIMENSIONS A SITUATION SPOTLIGHT Part of CNA’s National Security Seminars series November 17, 2022 10:30 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. EST

Featuring: Dr. David Finkelstein, Vice President, CNA and Director, China and Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Division, CNA (https://www.cna.org/about-us/leadership/center-for-naval-analyses/david-finkelstein.xml) Dr. Elizabeth Wishnick (https://www.cna.org/experts/Wishnick_E.xml), Senior Research Scientist, China Studies Program (https://www.cna.org/centers-and-divisions/cna/cip/china-studies), CNA, and Senior Research Scholar, Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University Dr. April Herlevi (https://www.cna.org/experts/Herlevi_A.xml) Senior Research Scientist, Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Program (https://www.cna.org/centers-and-divisions/cna/cip/indo-pacific-security-affairs), CNA For a recent analysis of the CCP Congress report see our InDepth blog posts by David Finkelstein and Brian Waidelich.

Analysis of the impact of the women-led protests since the death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of the morality police. Is this a new Iranian Revolution led by women?

Featuring: Dr. Michael Connell, Principal Research Scientist, Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs Division, CNA Nazee Moinian, Non-Resident Scholar, Iran Program, Middle East Institute

Moderated by: Nilanthi Samaranayake, Director, Strategy and Policy Analysis Program, CNA

With Introductions by: Halleh Seyson, Vice President/Director, Institute for Public Research, CNA A Virtual Seminar by CNA’s Inclusive National Security & National Security Seminar Series October 25, 2022.

Full Event: The Crackdown in Iran: A Women, Peace, and Security Situation Spotlight

The Pacific Islands region is a massive and diverse region, and one with strategic value to both the United States and China. What challenges do the people of the Pacific Island Countries face and how can they navigate strategic competition between the great powers. 

April Herlevi and Chris Cairns from CNA’s Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Program, sit down to discuss the latest from the Pacific Islands, and how China and the United States are engaged in the region.

Further Reading
Army War College: Enabling a More Externally Focused and Operational PLA

CNA: Mapping the Information Environment in the Pacific Island Countries

CNA: PRC Vessels Detained for Illegal Fishing in Vanuatu EEZ 

CNA InDepth: China and the Solomon Islands: Drivers of Security Cooperation" 

CNA InDepth: ​Pacific Connectivity and Tonga's Volcanic Eruption

CNA InDepth: Tonga Aid

Brazil is currently amid a contentious presidential election between incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. President Bolsonaro has consistently claimed that Brazil's election system is vulnerable to fraud, sparking fears that the peaceful transition of power could be threatened.

Ralph Espach, from CNA’s Strategy and Policy Analyses Program, joins the show to discuss the Brazilian election, the threat to democracy in the country and what this could mean for U.S. interests in South America.

For the past 80 years, the Center for Naval Analyses has been the Navy’s partner and an essential resource for agencies across the federal government.

In this episode, Executive Vice President of the Center for Naval Analyses, Andrew Mara sits down to discuss the Center’s accomplishments over the past fiscal year and where the organization is headed in the coming one.

It’s been just over a year since the Taliban seized control of Kabul and established themselves as the government of Afghanistan. What has changed in Afghanistan in that time and what is the status of the major factions in the country?

CNA’s Jonathan Schroden is joined by three experts on militant groups in Afghanistan, they discuss the status of the Taliban, Al Qaeda and ISIS-K in Afghanistan and the relationships between these groups.

Jonathan Schroden is the director of CNA’s Counter Threats and Challenges Program.

Twitter: @JJSchroden

Amira Jadoon is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at Clemson University. Previously she worked at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point.

Twitter: @amirajadoon

Asfandyar Mir is a senior expert in the Asia Center at USIP. His research interests include the international relations of South Asia, U.S. counterterrorism policy and political violence — with a regional focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Twitter: @asfandyarmir

Andrew Watkins is a senior expert on Afghanistan for the U.S. Institute of Peace. He joined after serving as the senior analyst on Afghanistan for the International Crisis Group, where he published in-depth reports and analytical commentary on the country’s conflict and efforts to initiate a peaceful settlement.

Twitter: @and_huh_what

In July, the eyes of the world were fixed on Sri Lanka, when protesters stormed the Presidential Palace, demanding the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. But while the headlines have since faded, the story is far from over.

In this episode of CNA Talks, Nilanthi Samaranayake stops by to fill us in on what has happened in Sri Lanka since the protests and how the new President can address the crisis. 

Nilanthi Samaranayake (@nilanthis) directs CNA's Strategy and Policy Analysis Program, her recent analysis of Sri Lanka has been published in Newsweek and Lawfare.

Further Reading

Newsweek: China's Not to Blame for All of Sri Lanka's Woes

Lawfare: How Has Sri Lanka’s Crisis Impacted Indian Ocean Security?

This content was originally published on BMNT's YouTube Channel. You can find the original video here.

In this follow-up conversation to BMNT’s June panel "The Race for Autonomy: Navigating a New Battlefield," A'ndre Gonawela talks to Dr. David Broyles, Research Program Director at the Center for Naval Analysis and co-host of "AI with AI", on the challenges facing the Department of Defense when it comes to developing and leveraging autonomous systems and capabilities. Dr. Broyles digs into why he (like our prior panelists) believes the state of autonomy today is ‘brittle’, and why the end goal for many is ‘general AI’ – the ability for artificial intelligence to behave and adapt like human intelligence can. We discuss Dr. Broyles’ belief that an ‘AI Winter’ may be approaching, where momentum in the development of systems is slowed or even halted. We then dig into where the Department of Defense is on the racetrack, dissecting the lingering confusion that underlies the differences between unmanned systems and autonomous systems, and how we can better equip DoD leaders in understanding how autonomous systems can operate. Dr. Broyles highlights opportunities to build trust in autonomous systems with the warfighter, in addition to addressing the edge cases and ‘fat tails’ that can impede the success of autonomous vehicles.

You can read about our first panel here: https://www.bmnt.com/post/the-race-for-autonomy-is-here

Notes from Episode

• General consensus of state of autonomy is that it is brittle, and still in infancy when it comes to DoD
• Bigger debate in AI community – end state is general AI, equivalent to human intelligence, adaptable to environment, and process things like a human can. What are the tools to go about this?
  • Two camps that disagree with each other:
    • Neural network reward: Can employ larger neural networks, dump more data, put more processing power, and have reward schemes.
    • Symbolic logic camps – need ways to encode information in symbols that machines can manipulate at higher levels of aggregation.
  • Still trying to figure out the things we really need to make these things work and get rid of the bugs.
  • AI Winter?
    • There have been periods where the momentum in AI development stopped – last one in early 2000s, influenced by availability of graphical processing capabilities (large computational power being dumped on the problem)
    • Are we coming to the limits of the tools and capabilities we’ve developed? Margins of incremental improvements are diminishing.
    • AVs are a bellwether of progress – if progress isn’t delivered in tangible ways, market could lose interest, meaning less financial investment.
  • AI Summer?
    • Alexnet winning image recognition competition in 2014 was first real success of neural networks, motivated community at large, many developments between 2014 through 2019. People were trying many different tools.
  • Where’s DOD with developing/leveraging autonomous systems?
    • It’s hard to pinpoint where they are on the racetrack.
    • Confusion between unmanned and autonomous systems – can be communicated unclearly, sometimes unmanned systems are mistakenly attributed as autonomous when they aren’t.
    • First major step is for DoD to employ more unmanned systems – it’s been slow, but CNO actually incorporating uncrewed systems into their force structure direction is a significant step.
    • Lots of little things here and there are going on but there’s nothing being coordinate in a big way. CDAO (Chief Digital AI Office, former JAIC), is trying to play a role here but there’s more ways in which they can step in.
  • Ensuring trust for warfighters?
    • You can either not have enough trust, or you can overtrust, and the latter gets less attention – the example here is Tesla’s autopilot system being overtrusted and then getting involved in deadly crashes.
    • Need to get autonomous systems into the hands of the warfighters – biggest priority.
    • Need to communicate the capabilities better to an operator, need to ensure that the operator can have other cues and/or ways of interacting with the system.
  • Do our DoD leaders understand how autonomous systems can be used/leveraged and how they work? Can we work to educate them quickly?
    • Area of high concern, and cyber discussions are indicative of the difficulties that could be faced as senior leaders have taken some time to embrace and understand the technologies.
    • Very small number of senior leaders who have a good idea of what’s going on, and larger number with staff who know what they’re talking about, but there’s issues with proposals promising to develop tech that simply won’t happen.
      • People in approval chain may not understand that these things won’t work
    • Arming senior leaders with the key questions, but that’s a bandaid – we need more people with basic understandings of how these technologies work. This does not necessarily mean we hire computer scientists, but DoD can work internally to raise the floor on level of understanding – and these areas are beginning to slowly come up to speed.
  • Addressing edge cases?
    • Fat tails – distribution of things that you may run into, most of the stuff is going to fall into a general bin, but there’ll be edge cases that’ll extend.
      • What happens if a plastic bag runs into a screen of an AV?
    • Uber and others couldn’t just throw hundreds or millions of hours of driving data to fix this.
    • Solution is General AI – we can’t throw fat tail problems into same bucket. Running simulations still runs into the same problem, and throwing info won’t solve it. There really is no good answer, there’s not been a good articulation of the answer.
    • We’re trying to minimize the edge cases as best we can. However, alternatives like smart roads and sensors can provide added information to help prevent accidents or minimize disruptions in environment.
  • Experimentation – What’s Commercial doing that DoD is not doing?
    • Mechanics around how to do things are the primary thing that can hinder experimentation.
    • There’s a strange acquisition ecosystem that isn’t always friendly to innovative ideas going through standard program office processes.
  • Policy Lagging Behind on Autonomous Systems?
    • There are some new technologies falling under clear regulation – and as long as it doesn’t cause any other problem, but because these technologies are so wide ranging they can cause issues.
    • You can forecast some of these things, but there’s always an unexpected bit. Is there a general philosophy on how to handle this? There’ll always be questions on privacy and safety.
  • Is DoD adequately reaching out to small businesses?
    • It is happening, but biggest barrier (in his view) is DoD contracting and being able to decipher postings, requirements, forms, and etc.
    • Need to take a quantitative approach to assessing effectiveness of this.

Hi Listeners,

Due to technical difficulties, CNA Talks will be released tomorrow, August 18. Thank you all for your patience. 

As the Navy transitions to the new Detailing Marketplace Assignment Policy increased demand will be placed on its detailers. In today’s episode, we discuss a new tool from CNA which could help expedite the assignment process and help detailers execute their mission.

Biographies

Warren Sutton is a Senior Research Scientist in CNA’s Navy Human Resources Program.

Further Reading

Navy Enlisted Detailing Marketplace Assignment Algorithm

Every branch of the military is struggling to meet its fiscal year 2022 recruiting goals. Marine General David Ottignon recently told Congress that 2022 is “arguably the most challenging recruiting year since the inception of the all-volunteer force.”

In this episode, we explore what is driving these challenges and how the military can adapt its recruiting strategizes to the modern media environment.

Guests

Elizabeth Clelan is a Principal Research Scientist in CNA’s ​Marine Corps and Defense Workforce Program.

Heather Wolters is a Senior Research Scientist in CNA’s Marine Corps and Defense Workforce Program.

Jared Huff is a Principal Research Scientist in CNA’s Navy Human Resources Program.

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Strategy, Policy and Analysis Program

This week we are bringing you a rebroadcast of Episode 108, to coincide with CNA's recent case study on the same topic. 

As climate change increases the frequency and impact of natural disasters, the consequences of these events are not felt evenly. While disasters are devastating for everyone, they are exponentially worse for already vulnerable populations.

In this episode of CNA Talks, CNA’s Angie De Groot sits down with Jason Biermann and Jody Ferguson, emergency management professionals from the Pudget Sound region, in Washington. They discuss an innovative approach that priorities getting aid to their most vulnerable citizens, with the help of their private sector partners.

A Case Study in Supply Chain Resilience Private-public Collaboration To Facilitate Flows: The Experience of Puget Sound Early in the Pandemic